[Report] In-depth Analysis of OpenRouter 2024 State of AI Report

Foreword

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The year 2024 marked a fundamental turning point in the evolution and real-world application of large language models (LLMs). By analyzing over 100 trillion tokens of real-world interactions on its platform, OpenRouter released the “State of AI” report. This study goes beyond horizontal benchmarking, offering deep insights into how developers and end-users are actually using AI “in the wild.”

Executive Summary

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1. The Rise of Reasoning Models: Since the official release of o1 in December 2024, AI is shifting from single-pass pattern prediction to multi-step deliberation and reasoning.
2. Reshaping the Open-Source Landscape: Open-weight (OSS) models now account for 1/3 of total usage, with Chinese models (DeepSeek, Qwen) showing remarkable performance.
3. Agentic Inference: AI is no longer just a chat box but acts as “agents” executing tasks and calling tools. The Agentic mode has become the default for production environments.
4. Cinderella Effect: Early user cohorts exhibit exceptionally high retention and loyalty.

Chapter 1: From Prediction to Reasoning—The o1 Inflection Point

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Prior to late 2024, state-of-the-art systems were primarily single-pass, autoregressive predictors. The emergence of o1 (Strawberry) broke this limitation:

• Internal Computation: Reasoning models expand inference-time computation through internal multi-step deliberation, latent planning, and iterative refinement before generating output.
• Capability Leap: This enables systematic improvements in mathematical reasoning, logical consistency, and multi-step decision-making.
• Paradigm Shift: Reasoning is no longer just a “described” process but a core logic embedded in the architecture.

Chapter 2: Open vs. Closed Source—The New Normal of Pluralism

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The report indicates a dynamic equilibrium between open-source and proprietary models at approximately 30% vs. 70%:

• Steady Growth of OSS: Open-weight models offer advantages in cost efficiency, transparency, and customization, becoming a vital part of the multi-model stack favored by developers.
• Rise of Chinese Models: Dense release cycles of models like DeepSeek V3 and Qwen have pushed the usage share of Chinese OSS models to nearly 30% in some weeks. Their average weekly share of 13.0% highlights strong technical competitiveness and market adaptation.

Chapter 3: The Rise of Agentic Inference

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LLM usage is shifting from “single-turn text completion” to “multi-step, tool-integrated workflows”:

• Reasoning-Intensive Workloads: Tasks requiring intense reasoning now represent nearly half of all usage.
• Tool-Calling Behavior: Developers are increasingly employing models as core components in larger automated systems.
• Evolving Interaction Shapes: Data shows prompts and completions are becoming longer and more complex. The report predicts: Agentic inference may already or will soon exceed human inference.

Chapter 4: User Behavior and Geographic Analysis

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1. Unexpected Dominant Categories

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• Creative Roleplay: Surprisingly leads many productivity tasks that were assumed to dominate.
• Coding Assistance: Remains a core high-value application of AI.
• Taxonomy Diversity: Users engage with LLMs for a multifaceted array of tasks beyond simple “assistant” functions.

2. The Cinderella “Glass Slipper” Retention Effect

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The study identifies “foundational cohorts”—early users whose engagement persists far longer than later groups. This effect suggests that AI has developed irreplaceable depth and stickiness for specific segments.

3. Geographic Variation

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• Global usage exhibits pronounced regional differences.
• The Asian share continues to expand, reflecting the decentralization of global computational resources and demand.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

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The o1 model did not end competition; it expanded the design space. The field is moving from “benchmark deltas” toward “real task completion.”

• Systems Thinking: The focus shifts to operational excellence and multi-model orchestration.
• Global Resource: LLMs have become a truly global computational asset with a structurally plural ecosystem.

[!IMPORTANT] Original Report: OpenRouter State of AI PDF Download: State-of-AI.pdf